Lebanon's prime minister gave his partners in government a 72-hour ultimatum to come up with "convincing" solutions for a rapidly worsening economic crisis, as nationwide protests against the country's entire ruling political class escalated. The blaze of protests was unleashed a day earlier when the government announced a slate of new proposed taxes, including a $6 monthly fee for using Whatsapp voice calls. The measures set a spark to long smoldering anger against top leaders from the president and prime minister to the numerous factional figures many blame for decades of corruption and mismanagement.

Fri, 18 Oct 2019 15:52:22 -0400

Aoun's office posted a photo of the meeting that consisted eight persons sitting with Aoun at the presidential palace in Beirut's southeastern suburb of Baabda. A member of the delegation told reporters later Friday the delegation told Aoun the government must resign and be replaced by an emergency Cabinet that calls for early parliamentary elections. Small numbers of protesters are attacking public and private property in the Lebanese capital of Beirut after security forces fired tear gas on demonstrators demanding the resignation of the government.

Fri, 18 Oct 2019 15:18:09 -0400

Frayed U.S. relations with Turkey over its incursion in Syria raise a sensitive question rarely discussed in public: Should the United States remove the nuclear bombs it has long stored at a Turkish air base? It's a tricky matter for several reasons, including the fact that by longstanding policy, the U.S. government does not publicly acknowledge locations of nuclear weapons overseas. President Donald Trump implicitly acknowledged the stockpile this week when asked by a reporter how confident he was of the bombs' security.

Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:50:42 -0400

(Bloomberg) -- When German officials get nagged about delivering major fiscal stimulus, they have plenty of answers ready for why now isn’t the moment.“I think we did a lot,” Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Washington on Friday. “The more important question is what will happen to the global economy.”Germany’s arguments don’t just rely on the national fixation with budget prudence and the avoidance of debt though. Officials also cite their assessment of the current situation in Europe’s biggest economy, as well as tactical considerations on how a stimulus package would be effective.Such reasoning might be used often this week in Washington as Scholz and colleagues attend meetings of the International Monetary Fund, which on Tuesday called for Germany to invest more and reduce taxes to aid its faltering economy. Two days later, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government cut its growth forecast for 2020 to just 1%, after earlier predicting 1.5%. Data due next month may even show the economy has just slipped into recession.The IMF is far from alone. Outgoing European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said last month that it is time for “fiscal policy to take charge” in the region, and is likely to repeat that refrain at his final meeting next week. Germany, with ample fiscal space built on repeated budget surpluses, is a prime candidate.Angel Gurria, chief of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, made a similar call on Thursday in Washington.“Even the central banks run out of ammunition -- right now, we have to complement their easing,” he told Bloomberg Television. “Countries that have room, that do not have a very big debt-to-GDP ratio, they should spend more.”Scholz said recent measures in Germany, such as higher public investment and tax cuts for individuals, will boost growth. “And this is in a situation when the economy is still stable” and employment is high, he said. While the opposition by some German lawmakers to a fiscal boost is starting to thaw, the government is holding firm for now. Here’s a look at some of the arguments they’re deploying to keep calls for stimulus at bay, based on public statements, private briefings, and confidential conversations with officials.Studying the CycleOne argument is that Germany’s slowdown doesn’t fundamentally stem from domestic weakness and the economic cycle. It’s a result of external and political factors, including global trade tensions and Brexit-related disruption. Such a situation isn’t best served by a classic stimulus response and doesn’t need measures that would normally counter the ebbing of the cycle.It’s Not AppropriateA continuation of that point is that the economy is actually close to its speed limit, with areas such as construction, where a lack of workers is causing bottlenecks, threatening to constrain expansion. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann argued that on Wednesday, saying calls for German fiscal stimulus are “completely disconnected” from reality.“The economy is working with an almost-closed output gap,” he said in response to questions at an event in New York. “Why would you spend money when you are operating at full capacity?”Two-Speed EconomyGerman weakness has generally been limited to manufacturing and isn’t widespread, runs another argument. The auto industry has suffered from trade tensions and a slow response to the global shift toward electric vehicles. But the domestic economy remains healthy, thanks to unemployment near a record low and the benefits of extreme monetary easing.The line of reasoning holds that past spillovers from the industrial sector to the consumer aren’t happening this time, because the link between the two is weaker than it was.“It’s a two-speed Germany,” Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset management at Royal London Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television. “The consumer is okay, and the housing market is actually rising quite strongly.”The Time Isn’t RightAnother view holds that a major budget stimulus should only be unveiled when it’s widely perceived to be needed. A fiscal boost may be more potent if announced at a time when things are really seen to be deteriorating. That was the experience in 2009 during the global financial crisis. But if ordinary people aren’t much feeling the effects of economic weakness, stimulus now could be less efficient than it otherwise would be.It Needs ThoughtA further point Weidmann made this week is that stimulus should be well aimed and not just delivered for the sake of it, suggesting the need for caution. He recommended targeted spending on infrastructure, research and education, and incentivizing work and investment through tax cuts.“It would be important to use the leeway wisely in order to promote sustainable growth in the long run and not just cause a flash in the pan,” he said.Merkel argued last month that simply spending cash isn’t what’s needed, saying “it’s currently not a lack of money” that’s the problem, and there are sufficient investment projects in the pipeline. They just need to be fast-tracked.(Updates with finance minister’s interview in second and eighth paragraphs)\--With assistance from Francine Lacqua and Lucy Meakin.To contact the reporters on this story: Craig Stirling in Frankfurt at cstirling1@bloomberg.net;Birgit Jennen in Berlin at bjennen1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Simon Kennedy at skennedy4@bloomberg.net, Paul Gordon, Jana RandowFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:41:07 -0400

(Bloomberg) -- “The ayes to the right...” That’s how Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow will begin announcing the result of the votes that could determine Britain’s future.But amid the flummery of the British Parliament, where members cannot address each other by name, and the security is provided by men in tights, how can you tell who’s actually won and lost? Even veterans of the system can be caught out by procedure. Here’s our guide to Saturday’s votes.The MotionPrime Minister Boris Johnson is asking Parliament to support his Brexit deal. If he doesn’t get that approval, he’s required by law to seek a delay to Britain’s departure from the European Union.Kick-off: 2.30 p.m. in LondonThere’s no formal finish time, but it’s likely someone will propose they move to voting at around 2.30 p.m.It is up to Bercow to decide which amendments are put to a vote. He might not select any, or he might only select one or two.‘The Question Is...’Bercow will announce what they’re voting on. Amendments for this vote are being identified by letter.A - Oliver Letwin’s proposal to withhold approval of the deal until it has been passed into lawB - a call for Brexit to be canceledC - a call for Brexit to be delayed until Jan. 31 to allow an election to be held‘As Many As Are Of That Opinion...’Bercow will then invite supporters of the amendment to shout “Aye!” and opponents to shout “No!” If either side doesn’t shout, the other side wins by default.‘...Say Aye!’Which side wants what? The government wants the amendments to fail, so its supporters will be voting “No.” When it comes to the motion on the deal, the government wants it to pass, so its supporters will be voting “Aye.”‘Division! Clear the Lobby!’Assuming there’s a shout of “No,” Bercow announces a vote. In the House of Commons, members vote by walking through one of the two lobbies on either side of the chamber. The entrances are at opposite ends. On television, voting is always shown as a wide shot of the whole chamber, looking toward the Speaker’s chair. The “Ayes” will walk away from the camera, out of the door behind the chair. The “Noes” will walk toward the camera.Members of Parliament have eight minutes from the moment that the Speaker announces the vote to get into the right lobby. A bell sounds across the Parliamentary estate, and elevators are reserved for members during votes. Party whips stand at the entrance to each lobby, attempting to direct their flock through the correct door and intercept and dissuade members going the wrong way.Meanwhile at the exit to each voting lobby, tall wooden desks are slid into place at which clerks sit, ticking off the names of members as they file past. This is now done on iPads, but that data isn’t used to tally the results of the vote. That job is done by the tellers. Remember them, they’re important.‘Tellers for The Ayes?’A minute or so after Bercow has announced the vote, he’ll stand up and announce it again. This time, he’ll also announce two lawmakers from each side of the vote to act as tellers. One from each side now heads to the exit of each lobby. Their job is to count members leaving. They do this out loud, without the aid of technology. Sometimes it goes wrong. One Labour member once voted three times without being spotted. Occasionally members walking past the tellers will amuse themselves by shouting out other numbers, in an effort to confuse them.‘Lock the Doors!’While some whips are manning the lobbies, others are conducting a sweep of Parliament’s bars and toilets, looking for stragglers. This isn’t a job without risk. In one recent vote, the Conservative whip charged with minding the party’s heavier drinkers in the bar misjudged his own capacity for alcohol, and ended up being carried through the voting lobby by the man he was supposed to be minding.When eight minutes have passed, Bercow shouts “Lock the doors.” The whips duck into the lobbies and officials lock the doors behind them. If a member isn’t in the lobby now, it’s too late for them to vote. And if they’re in the wrong lobby, having nipped in to use the toilet, for instance, they’re stuck.At the far end of the voting lobby, members split into queues, depending on the first letter of their name. Because people higher up the alphabet are more likely to be elected -- they appear higher on British ballot papers -- the queue for “N to Z” is generally shorter.Having been checked off, members file past the tellers -- the government whip will be on the right, counting, while the opposition whip on the left is there to confirm -- and then back into the chamber.It generally takes about seven more minutes to get a result. The last person through the lobby is the whip who was standing on the door. They check the toilets in the lobby and make sure that everyone has voted, and then vote themselves. “All out,” they tell the tellers as they walk past.‘Order’The tellers now meet in the middle of the chamber, compare their tallies, and prepare to announce the result. They’ll stand four across. If you’ve remembered who the tellers for the ayes and noes are, then you can tell the result at this point -- the winning side stand on the Speaker’s left. The camera will cut to show them face on. Members in the chamber -- who know whose tellers are whose -- may well cheer at this point. But beware: Government tellers are used to standing on the winning side, and sometimes forget. So tellers have occasionally swapped sides at the last minute.‘The Ayes to the Right’The tellers now take a step forward, and a teller for the winning side will read out the result. They always read the “Ayes” number first. If this number is more than 318, the Ayes have almost certainly won -- but not definitely, because some lawmakers mark their abstention in a vote by voting in both lobbies. You can only be sure when the “Noes” number has been read out.‘The Noes Have It!’The teller hands the result to a clerk, who hands it to Bercow, who reads it out again, and then adds which side -- the Ayes or the Noes -- “have it”.‘Unlock!’Bercow orders the voting lobbies to be unlocked. The vote is over.So... Who won?If the Letwin amendment passes, Johnson has suffered a major defeat. He would be obliged by law to request an extension to Brexit negotiations from the EU. But the vote that follows could still tell us how much support he has for his deal. If that number is above 318, he has a shot at getting his deal through Parliament, maybe even before his Oct. 31 deadline.(An earlier version of this story corrected day of voting.)\--With assistance from Alex Morales.To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net;Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, Emma Ross-ThomasFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:34:47 -0400